On Tuesday night, in a speech to the Australian Business Economists, Dr Lowe delivered to the market advice which outlined how an Australian form of QE might take shape. Lowe was quick to offer a raft of predictable caveats, assuring the markets that policy of this sort would only take action at an interest rate of 0.25%, and is subject to further decision making.
Government bonds were labelled as the vehicle of choice for the RBA to target in a QE program, with Lowe stating that there was “no appetite to undertake outright purchases of private sector assets as part of a QE program”. The assertion from Lowe is a distinction without a difference, with the additional liquidity (at least in part) bolstering demand for private sector assets.
It’s yet another bearish sign for the economy both domestically and internationally. The head of the Reserve Bank is compelled to deliver a speech providing guidance on the use of unconventional monetary policy in Australia, and the markets are listening intently. Reassurance that the economy is not suffering from the specific economic concerns of Europe or Japan is a misdirection from our myriad domestic issues such as sluggish wage growth, abysmal economic complexity, sky high private debt and rising unemployment.
The speech serves as forward guidance, and in our view, a strong indicator that the RBA is planning for QE under conditions which are almost certain to mature.